Global exposure of population and land?use to meteorological droughts under different warming levels and <scp>SSPs</scp> : A <scp>CORDEX</scp> ?based study

Global warming is likely to cause a progressive drought increase in some regions, but how population and natural resources will be affected still underexplored. This study focuses on global population, forests, croplands pastures exposure meteorological hazard the 21st century, expressed as frequency severity of events. As input, we use large ensemble climate simulations from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), projections NASA-SEDAC dataset land-use Land-Use Harmonization 2 project for 1981–2100. The presented five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-SSP5) at four Warming Levels (GWLs: 1.5°C 4°C). Results show that considering only Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI; based precipitation), SSP3 GWL4 projects largest fraction (14%) experience an (versus 1981–2010), with this value increasing 60% if temperature considered (indirectly included Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI). With SPEI, highest GWL each SSP, 8 (for SSP2, SSP4, SSP5) 11 (SSP3) billion people, is, more than 90%, by least one unprecedented drought. For SSP5 GWL4, approximately × 106 km2 forests (respectively, 6% 11%) 1.5 (19%) exposed increased according SPI, SPEI extent rise 17 (49%), 6 (78%) 12 (67%), being mid-latitudes most affected. projected significantly increases drought, even low GWLs, thus extensive mitigation adaptation efforts are needed avoid severe impacts change.